Date Published: May 13, 2014
Source: Wired Magazine
Wired asks a panel of experts how they think space travel will evolve over the next decade.
Frank de Winne, First European astronaut commander
“First, on the institutional side, we will have a system that will take us beyond lower orbit, from the Nasa SLS system to the Orion capsule and the European-built service module of the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle. We’ll see astronauts relying on significant European technology at launch. Second, we’ll see more than just one vehicle flying astronauts to space stations. The commercial crew that Nasa is developing will have matured. Our Chinese colleagues will have further developed their transportation system. Last, there will be an even bigger change in suborbital flights. This will really become a significant market for citizens to take a glimpse of our Earth from a very high altitude.”
Mark Geyer, Programme manager, Nasa Orion
“Building on lessons learned from what will by then be two decades of continuous human presence on the International Space Station, Nasa will be well into its plans for deep-space exploration. Just as the Apollo 8 pictures of the Earth from the Moon changed the way we think about our place in the solar system, the discoveries made as we reinvigorate exploration of the solar system, with the Space Launch System and Orion, will shatter our notions of the universe and origins of life, giving the world a new perspective on our planet.”
Naveen Jain Founder, Moon Express
“We are seeing a massive transformation from the ‘mainframe’ era of space exploration — large centralised organisations giving access to a few — to the ‘personal computer’ era. This radically reduces the cost of space travel and exploration, and democratises access to space and beyond. In ten years’ time, people will be routinely travelling into space for business and pleasure. We will have private habitats in Earth’s orbit as a weekend getaway and private enterprises will be leveraging the Moon for precious resources.”
Jane Poynter CEO, World View
“In 2024, humans will voyage to the Moon and Mars as envoys and private citizens. People will taxi up above the planet’s atmosphere to witness the glorious view of our planet suspended in the black void of space. We will choose our mode of transport — from rockets to gas-filled balloons — that will carry us some of the way up, into the stratosphere. From there, schoolchildren will call home, and artists will perform. Daredevils will dive safely to Earth from an orbiting vessel. And miners will no longer be limited to the finite resources of Earth.”
Pete Worden Director, Nasa Ames Center
“The world, and particularly the US, will be entering the most dynamic era in space travel during the 2020s. Nasa’s new Space Launch System will support human missions to asteroids — demonstrating how we can move them around to protect the Earth from impact. Equally importantly, the 2020s will see a robust commercial space-travel industry, with airline-type systems taking people and cargo to the International Space Station and beyond. By the end of the next decade we may well be on our way to Mars — to explore, and perhaps even to settle.”
Bas Lansdorp CEO, Mars One
“Predictions in the space industry are often too optimistic — a manned mission to Mars has been ’20 years away’ for more than 40 years. Optimism is warranted now for four reasons. First, the rich have got richer — over 200 people can finance a mission to Mars. Second, social media can get people behind your cause. Third, the trouble in the world makes us need a ‘Big Goal’. Fourth, unique content has become more valuable. I predict the first hardware for a manned settlement will be on Mars in ten years.”
Original story by Harry Lambert, Wired Magazine
Image credit: Oliver Barrett